Tag Archives: wheat

P.J. Conradt, Tredas, joins the marketing conversation to start the week. Overall grains were mixed with corn and soybeans lower, wheat higher. Conradt looks at the current supply demand fundamentals and how that helps to shape the current trade. Conradt also discusses how this may shape 2020 planting decisions and how it can work into current marketing plans.

Listen to the latest episode here:


Drought conditions in the southern U.S. plains continue to be a growing concern for winter wheat producers. The southern plains are the top winter wheat producing region in the country. Extra precipitation helped to boost yields and harvests this year, even though growers planted fewer acres than in previous growing seasons.

A return to the more typical arid conditions may put some limit on crop potential come harvest time in 2020. However, other countries that grow a lot of wheat are also having some concerns. Growers in Great Britain are hoping for dry weather to help pick up the pace in planting throughout rain-soaked farm fields. Growers in Ukraine, a major wheat-producing competitor of the U.S. need a good rainfall on their newly planted fields before settling in for the winter.

As the planting period is mostly coming to an end in the northern hemisphere, places like France and Germany have seen higher-than-normal rainfall over the past month. That’s not only slowed the harvest of summer crops, but it’s also planting of winter wheat behind schedule.

Russia is the world’s top winter wheat exporter and may plant a record amount of the crop this year. Favorable temps and near-normal moisture have made it possible for Russian producers to plant in an ideal timeframe.

Lower corn & beans while soybeans were higher.  Lackluster trade, currency issues with Brazil.  Yield loss is visible in North Dakota.   Harvest progress…upcoming weather system.  Corn plan lacks direction.  Quiet cattle market after Friday’s cattle on feed report.

A phone conversation with China, leads to some positive moves. African Swine Fever-market prices are 3x in some area’s of China. Talk of food issues within the country. Snow next week and this week in the Texas Panhandle how that will effect the winter wheat. Harvest yields are getting smaller.

Slowest news day in markets today-which the market reflected.  Spread between South America & U.S. prices.  Export numbers from the U.S.  Weather still being talked about = more rain then anything else.  Weekly Crop Progress.  Wheat movement on the market.  Livestock market was relatively quiet as well.  Cold Storage report due out tomorrow.

Lower corn & beans, higher wheat.  Crop progress report, some flags from South Dakota gave the national picture a bias. Another storm system is moving in.  Some open days to get field work done.   Bloomberg story with misleading story.  African Swine Fever update. Exports to China.   Stronger cattle market.

Corn dented was 93%, corn mature was 58% and corn harvested was 15% as of Sunday, Oct. 6. Soybeans dropping leaves was 72%, and soybeans harvested was 14%, according to this week’s USDA NASS Crop Progress report.

Corn condition was rated 56% in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, while soybean condition was rated 53% good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week.

To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/….

National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Dented 93 88 100 99
Corn Mature 58 43 92 85
Corn Harvested 15 11 33 27
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 72 55 90 87
Soybeans Harvested 14 7 31 34
Spring Wheat Harvested 91 90 100 99
Winter Wheat Planted 52 39 55 53
Winter Wheat Emerged 26 11 28 26
Cotton Bolls Opening 83 77 76 75
Cotton Harvested 25 16 24 20
Sorghum Mature 65 54 71 73
Sorghum Harvested 33 30 38 40
Rice Harvested 76 68 78 80


National Crop Condition Summary
(VP = Very Poor; P = Poor; F = Fair; G = Good; E = Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
Corn 4 11 29 45 11 4 10 29 46 11 4 8 20 47 21
Soybeans 4 11 32 45 8 3 10 32 46 9 3 7 22 49 19
Cotton 4 15 42 32 7 3 17 40 34 6 6 19 33 32 10
Sorghum 2 5 28 51 14 2 6 27 50 15 5 11 29 44 11


National Soil Moisture Condition – 48 States
(VS = Very Short; SH = Short; AD = Adequate; SR = Surplus)
This Week Last Week Last Year
Topsoil Moisture 11 16 53 20 11 20 55 14 6 13 63 18
Subsoil Moisture 10 18 57 15 10 20 59 11 8 17 63 12