Brandon Benitz & Clay Patton sit down to talk about wheat production during Harry S. Truman’s time on the farm & compare it to today…
Tomorrow’s signing day with China. A lot of stories about what be included. WTO guidelines. Chinese imports. Bird flu update for China. Turkey’s in Northern Hungary as well. We continue to see tight ethanol supplies. Weather updates for South America. Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop. Livestock market & what China’s hog market looks like. Some short term technical on cattle.
Pre-Report trade. If the wheat is leading higher on the S&D Report the dollar will have a reaction. Trade might not be worried about the corn. bullish surprise in the report though could be the corn, seeing where we are at in harvest. Phase Two comes after elections. Phase one is on track for January 15th. Iran still being talked about. World Supply Demands with South America. Winter seeding for the wheat brought to the front of the classroom. USMCA. Wall Street Journal & the tide turning. Cattle market & waiting for the cash continues to be on the quiet side.
Quiet grain trade, full trading week, coming out of holidays, focus turning towards taxes. China signing, USMCA talk. Political action, South America. Now into an election year. USDA report out on Friday. Corn & wheat lower, beans higher. Struggles in Australia & the effects on the U.S. markets. Strong start to the marketing week for cattle. Is there a chance for a pull back on cattle Tuesday?
President Donald Trump says he’ll sign the first phase of a trade deal with China at the White House on Jan. 15.
Trump says Tuesday on Twitter that he’ll then travel to Beijing at a later date for talks aimed at reaching agreement on outstanding sticking points in the U.S.-China trade relationship.
In the deal reached earlier in December, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China and China agreed to buy larger quantities of U.S. farm products, such as soybeans. Remaining sticking points would be worked out during a second round of trade talks.
When news broke about the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China, it made the soybean industry especially happy. A Bloomberg report says don’t forget about wheat, which could also be a big winner in the agreement.
Speculation is rising that China will work to fill its wheat-buying quota as part of the agreement. That will likely create new demand for wheat because China has failed to live up to its wheat-purchasing promises in the past. Soybean purchases are likely to be somewhat more limited because of the African Swine Fever outbreak across the country, which will lower typical demand levels.
If Chinese wheat purchases were to reach the quota mark of 9.6 million tons, that would represent a huge demand jump. In the six years prior to and up through 2017, buying has averaged less than 50 percent of that allotment. The timing could be good for U.S. farmers.
Tighter corn supplies in Brazil and wheat supplies in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, have made American grain more competitively priced in the world market. That’s already causing Chinese importers to begin to boost their purchase levels from the U.S.
Holiday shortened week. A look back at 2019 & damage done to the market trade
Top factors going into 2020
Grains saw a bounce in the corn, China deal still needs to be inked out. South America has good weather in Brazil-putting added pressure to bean demand, Argentina has been hot & dry. Soybeans have had some oversold levels. Bullish to the beans. Basis to remain strong going into 2020. COF report out on Friday & cash cattle thoughts.
China & the status of the agreement & 50-billion-dollar trade talk. USMCA vote. Weather in South America. Timing of Chinese purchases…does it include ethanol? How much of the rally a rally vs. a money flow? Holiday feel set into the markets. Winter wheat concerns looking at some dryer weather. Cattle & hog fundamentals. Waiting for cash cattle. Is cattle weights a concern?
Cattle saw a massive amount of fund buying on Friday. Interesting that beef had the biggest reaction to the news about China. Already some longs going into Friday. Fundamentals of the cattle-weights are higher than a year ago. Producer is asking for higher money. Could we see some higher money in this last full trading week of 2019? Is there some bullish feelings in cattle & are hogs too cheap? Corn to see a rally? Beans take a jump in the markets. Wheat is the easiest most exportable item. Some general comments about China.