Tag Archives: WASDE

WASDE report.  How valid were some of the results in Re-surveying North & South Dakota Harvest weather going into next week.  Open interest in the cattle-could we see some buying & is there in a top going in.  Planting progress in South America.

New lows in the corn on a Thursday as markets set up for the Friday WASDE Report. China continues to play a role in the markets both on the soybean & hog side of the trade. Demand for corn isn’t good, cattle crazy with export increases on the way.

 

Day after WASDE.  Highlights of corn & beans.  Some of the key points to keep in mind going forward.  Until we have a trade agreement, we don’t have a trade agreement.  Tough growing season & slow harvest.  We got the early frost.  Friendly S&D report.  Will we see a basis change with the continued harvest delays?  7-10 days in the Dakota’s.

USDA expects farmers to harvest 13.8 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall with a national average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre (bpa). The production estimate came in slightly higher than expected, while yield was only increased by 0.2 bpa.

Soybean production was forecast at 3.55 bb, within the range of pre-report estimates, while the national average yield was 46.9 bpa, also within expectations.

Soybean ending stocks, however, dropped to 460 million bushels (mb), a 180 mb decline that’s within the range of pre-report estimates.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

With USDA forecasting a yield of 168.4 bpa and harvested acreage of 81.8 million, that puts total production at 13.8 bb, down less than 1% from September’s estimates.

After finding smaller stockpiles at the end of the 2018-19 marketing year than expected in the September 30 Grain Stocks report, USDA put total beginning stocks for the new-crop marketing year at 2.12 bb, 331 mb below its September estimate. USDA increased its forecast for feed and residual use by 125 mb, while lowering ethanol use by 50 mb. It also slashed exports to 1.9 bb from 2.05 bb last month.

As a result, ending stocks dropped to 1.93 bb, breaking through the psychologically important 2 bb mark and falling toward the high side of pre-report estimates.

The national average farm-gate price increased by 20 cents to $3.80

Globally, corn stocks came at 302.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 3.7 mmt from last month but slightly above the range of pre-report expectations.

SOYBEANS

USDA pegged new-crop soybean production at 3.550 bb, down from 3.633 bb in September. That drop was enabled by the agency’s tweak to average soybean yield, down to 46.9 bpa, 1 bpa lower than the September estimate. Harvested acres were also trimmed 75.6 million acres.

New-crop ending stocks came in at 460 mb, on the lower end of pre-report analyst estimates. The drop came largely from USDA’s trimming of old-crop soybean stocks to 913 mb, down from 1.005 bb in September. To find that lower old crops ending stocks number, USDA adjusted old-crop production down to 4.428 bb, down from 4.544 bb.

The U.S. average farm gate price for soybeans was pegged at $9 per bushel, up from $8.50 last month.

Globally, new-crop soybean ending stocks landed at 95.21 mmt down from 99.19 mmt in September, and also on the low end of pre-report expectations.

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2018-19
Corn 13,779 13,611 13,758 13,173 13,799 14,420
Soybeans 3,550 3,571 3,634 3,473 3,633 4,544
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2018-19
Corn 168.4 166.8 169.3 164.5 168.2 176.4
Soybeans 46.9 47.1 48.1 46.0 47.9 51.6
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2019-20
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2018-19
Corn 81.8 81.5 82.0 80.1 82.0 81.7
Soybeans 75.6 75.8 77.2 74.5 75.9 88.1
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Oct Average High Low Sep
Corn 1,929 1,684 1,963 1,257 2,190
Soybeans 460 510 584 388 640
Wheat 1,044 1,014 1,054 965 1,014
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
Oct Avg. High Low Sep
Corn 302.6 296.1 301.0 291.0 306.3
Soybeans 95.2 96.9 108.8 92.3 99.2
Wheat 287.8 285.7 288.7 280.5 286.5

(BE/AG)

Arlan Suderman, Chief Economist for INTL FC Stone, says, “It’s a pivotal time in the markets this week with a WASDE report, first winter storm and US China trade talks all happening.”
Suderman points to what could happen in the WASDE report and puts his agronomist hat on to look at what could happen with the impending winter storm across the Midwest.
Suderman also looks at what China could be willing to do or rather buy to secure a partial trade deal with the US. Of course China will also expect some concessions from the US, but President Trump could continue his hard line stance.