OMAHA (DTN) — USDA expects the nation’s corn farmers to harvest 13.67 billion bushels (bb) of corn this year, pulling in a national average yield of 167 bushels per acre (bpa). That’s a decline of 100 million bushels (mb) and 1.4 bpa from last month, respectively, and within the range of pre-report expectations.
Soybean production, at 3.55 bb, was down slightly from last month, with the national average yield estimate 46.9 bpa, unchanged from last month.
Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, slightly bearish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, while the 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bearish for wheat.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
With the national average yield at 167 bpa and corn production at 13.66 bb, USDA’s supply forecast declined correspondingly, but the 2019-20 ending stocks did not.
For the 2019-20 marketing year, USDA pegged domestic ending stocks at 1.91 bb, down from 19.3 bb last month. USDA lowered its forecast for use in the feed and residual and ethanol categories by 25 mb each while cutting its export forecast by 50 mb.
The national average farm gate price increased a nickel to $3.85.
The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio was 13.7%, down from last season’s 14.6%.
Global ending stocks for 2019-20 declined to 296 million metric tons, down 6.5 mmt, due to lower production forecasts.
U.S. soybean production was pegged 3.55 bb, the same as the October report and down 880 mb from 2018’s production of 4.43 bb.
Yield also held pat for soybeans at 46.9 bpa. Soybean yields for the year are about 4 bushels below 2018’s yield of 50.6 bpa. Harvested acres were held pat at 75.6 million acres as well, the same as the October report.
USDA did raise 2019-20 ending stocks by 15 mb to 475 mb for the November estimate. That compares to the 913 mb carryover from the 2018-19 soybean crop.
To increase stocks by 15 mb, USDA lowered domestic crush by 15 mb, going to 2.105 bb. Export estimates held at 1.775 bb, the same as October.
Soybean prices are projected at $9 a bushel, the same as last month.
Global soybean production for 2019-20 was pegged at 336.56 million metric tons (12.37 billion bushels), compared to 338.97 mmt (12.46 bb) in October. Global ending stocks were pegged at 95.42 mmt (3.5 bb), up slightly from the October projection of 95.21 mmt.
With South America still in the midst of planting season, Brazil’s projected production remained at 123 mmt (4.5 bb) and Argentina’s production remained at 53 mmt (1.95 bb).
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for the 2019-20 marketing year was 11.8%, up slightly from last month.
USDA forecast domestic wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 at 1.013 bb, down from last month’s 1.044 bb estimate and within the range of pre-report expectations.
All-wheat production, at 1.92 bb, was unchanged from last month following a revision to spring wheat production. Spring wheat production is forecast at 562.38 mb, down from 623.23 mb from 2018.
USDA also cut the national average farm-gate prices for wheat from $4.70 per bushel to $4.60.
Global ending stocks for 2019-20 of 288.28 mmt was up from last month and was above the range of pre-report expectations.
USDA left unchanged China’s production for 2019-20 132 mmt.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio for wheat was 48.1%, down from last month’s 49.3%.
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)|
|U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2019-20|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|