Crazy week of reports. From the January 10th report, Phase One, USMCA…but still beans had a rough week. Shows volatility & one needs to be prepared. Last 60 days we have been in a tight range. Ethanol margins remain tight…China even mentioned ethanol in Phase One. South American weather & current harvest. Hogs could see the boost from the trade deals. There is money to be made in the cattle market right now.
Why have the markets been down so much since the phase one trade deal came out? What are some of the details of the trade deal that you found encouraging? Are there parts of the trade deal that concern you? What does the market focus on now going forward?
How does the corn export demand look? How does the corn ethanol demand look? What does it take to turn the market back higher?
Nebraska Corn Statement:
The future of Nebraska’s corn industry is bright following the Senate’s passage of the much-anticipated trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. The Nebraska Corn Board (NCB) and the Nebraska Corn Growers Association (NeCGA) issued statements today regarding the approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
“Ever since President Trump announced his intent to withdraw from NAFTA, one of our top priorities has been a modernized agreement that continues to have a positive impact on Nebraska agriculture,” said Dan Nerud, president of the NeCGA and farmer from Dorchester. “We’re extremely appreciative of our farmer members who helped bring USMCA to the finish line. We’d also like to thank Sen. Deb Fischer and Sen. Ben Sasse for their unwavering support on this key piece of legislation.”
“The fact that USMCA received overwhelming bipartisan support from the House of Representatives last month and overwhelming bipartisan support from the Senate today just emphasizes the importance of free trade with Canada and Mexico,” said David Bruntz, chairman of the NCB and farmer from Friend. “Because of USMCA, Nebraska’s corn farmers and ethanol producers will continue to have access to our biggest and most dependable markets.”
The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) applaud the U.S. Senate for passing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) today.
“Trade deals can put the price of wheat back on track for many growers and create new opportunities for many farmers,” said NAWG President and Lavon, Tex., farmer Ben Scholz. “NAWG applauds the U.S. Senate for moving quickly on passing USMCA out of the Chamber.”
“Mexico continues to be our top importing country,” said USW Chairman and Paulding, Ohio, farmer Doug Goyings. “Wheat farmers are relieved to see the agreement moving on to the President and I think the Mexican millers who want our wheat are relieved, too.”
USMCA retains tariff-free access to imported U.S. wheat for those long-time flour milling customers in Mexico, a crucial step toward rebuilding trust in the U.S. as a reliable supplier in this important, neighboring market. In addition, the USMCA makes important progress towards more open commerce for U.S. wheat farmers near the Canadian border by allowing U.S. varieties registered in Canada to receive reciprocal grading treatment.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, a member of Senate Agriculture Committee, released the following statement today after the Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA):
“Nebraska’s families, ag producers, and manufacturers depend on access to Canada and Mexico, our state’s two largest export markets. I am happy that Congress got this deal done and look forward to President Trump signing it, securing great opportunities for Nebraska.”
Nebraska Ag and Manufacturing Information:
– In 2017, Nebraska sent nearly 900 million dollars of ag products to Mexico and nearly 450 million dollars of ag products to Canada
– Agriculture trade between Canada and Mexico supports nearly 54,000 Nebraska jobs
– The value of total Nebraska exports to Mexico and Canada in 2018 was $3.5 billion
– More than 300 Nebraska manufacturing firms depend on exports to Mexico and Canada
– In 2018, Nebraska exported $2.2 billion in manufacturing goods to Mexico and Canada
The Senate is hopeful to vote on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement this morning. After quickly advancing the agreement through required committee approvals, the Senate will consider the agreement ahead of the impeachment trial next week.
However, the Senate is not in session Friday, leaving little time to debate and pass the implementing legislation. Thought to be delayed until after the impeachment trial, the Senate moved up committee hearings to include USMCA passage during a busy week in Washington. The same day President Donald Trump signed the China agreement, the House of Representatives sent articles of impeachment to the Senate.
Now, the Senate must make the impeachment trial a priority, which is expected to begin Tuesday. Action by the Senate would move USMCA to President Trump’s desk for his signature. The signing of the agreement would signal Canada to approve the agr
WASHINGTON, D.C. – At today’s Senate Commerce Committee hearing, U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) voted to advance the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The agreement passed the committee by a bipartisan vote. The full Senate is expected to vote on the agreement tomorrow, sending it to President Trump’s desk for signature.
Senator Fischer spoke on the importance of the agreement to Nebraska families, ag producers, manufacturers, and businesses.
Click here to view or download the video
Senator Fischer’s full remarks:
“Mr. Chairman, and fellow members of the committee:
“When I travel across Nebraska, I hear directly from our families, ag producers, manufacturers, and businesses about how important the passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be.
“Let me explain specifically how this deal brings economic certainty to our state.
“Agriculture is the economic engine of Nebraska, and the USMCA is critical for farmers and ranchers.
“Currently, Canada and Mexico receive 44 percent of Nebraska’s total exports.
“In 2017 alone, our state sent nearly 900 million dollars of ag products to Mexico and nearly 450 million dollars of ag products to Canada.
“Agriculture trade between Canada and Mexico supports nearly 54,000 jobs in Nebraska.
“Importantly, the USMCA maintains and strengthens markets for corn and soybeans.
“It also allows U.S. beef producers to continue to grow their exports to Mexico – which have risen 800 percent since NAFTA was first ratified.
“In 2018 alone, Nebraska exported over 250 million dollars of beef to both countries.
“According to Nebraska Department of Agriculture reports, our state’s 6.4 billion dollars in agricultural exports in 2017 led to nearly 8.2 billion dollars in additional economic activity in our state.
“But let’s not forget that the benefits of the USMCA extend far beyond our farm and ranchland.
“Nebraska’s manufacturers rely on America’s neighbors to the north and south, and a modernized trade deal means good-paying manufacturing jobs for our state.
“More than 300 Nebraska manufacturing firms depend on exports to Canada and Mexico.
“These manufacturing jobs tend to be full-time, pay high wages, and offer major opportunities for workers.
“In 2018, Nebraska exported $6.5 billion in manufacturing goods to the world—and $2.2 billion of that went to Mexico and Canada.
“The USMCA represents a bipartisan agreement that will benefit Nebraska families and all of the American people.
“It’s high time to unite around this common-sense trade deal and push the USMCA over the finish line.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggests the Senate will vote on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement this week. Bloomberg News expects a vote Thursday, as the Senate committees required to sign off on the implementing legislation are doing so quickly. However, a final vote has not been confirmed.
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee approved the agreement on a vote of 16-4 Tuesday morning. The Senate Budget Committee also approved the trade agreement Tuesday. Up next, the bill must be approved by the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, along with the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee today (Wednesday).
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee changed its hearing from Thursday to today (Wednesday), and the Senate Appropriations Committee is expected to do the same, sending the agreement to the full Senate for approval.
The House of Representatives is expected to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate this week, but the trials won’t likely start until next week, offering a small window of opportunity for the Senate to pass the agreement.
Impeachment hearings are expected to now delay Senate consideration of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The House of Representatives will vote this week to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate.
Senate leaders say the impeachment trial would last roughly two weeks, with members in session six days a week. That pushes any timeline for USMCA approval into February. Meanwhile, following approval of the implementing legislation in the Senate Finance Committee last week, other committees needing to approve the agreement are doing so quickly this week. The Environment and Public Works Committee, along with with the Senate Budget Committee, both scheduled hearings Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee will consider the agreement Wednesday morning, along with the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. Finally, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will consider the agreement Thursday morning. However, impeachment must take priority in the Senate, therefor holding up final approval of the agreement until after the impeachment process.
The Senate committees tasked with markup and approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are planning to do so quickly. The agreement must be approved through the committees before reaching the full Senate. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, who’s panel has already approved the agreement, Thursday said, “it takes just a short period of time” for other committees to review the implementing legislation.
However, the impeachment impasse could end as early as Friday, further casting a cloud on just when the full Senate will consider USMCA. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she’ll send the articles of impeachment “when I’m ready,” indicating that could be soon.
Meanwhile, Senate Leader Mitch McConnel says the Senate will move on with other work until Pelosi sends the articles of impeachment. And, Grassley says the Senate is “not going to dilly-dally around while we’re waiting to see what Speaker Pelosi wants to do on impeachment,” adding, the Senate committees will act very quickly next week.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement timeline remains uncertain. However, lawmakers in the certain seem certain they will pass the agreement, at the latest, following impeachment hearings.
The House is still holding the articles of impeachment, alleging the Senate won’t agree to a fair trial. At issue is the Senate must make impeachment a priority. Depending on how long a further review of USMCA takes in the Senate, and how long House Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds the articles of impeachment, will change the trajectory of USMCA.
The Senate Finance Committee approved the agreement this week. However, a Senate parliamentarian has determined that eight other Senate committees must offer approval of the agreement. However, U.S. law states the agreement will be discharged from those committees in 15 days, regardless of approval.
If Nancy Pelosi sends articles of impeachment to the Senate between now and whenever the committees approve the agreement, perhaps next week, the USMCA implementing legislation would have to wait until the impeachment trial is over, likely at the end of this month.