We start a shortened trading week with overnight grains grains mostly lower. Chicago wheat was the lone grain in the green.
Chicago wheat is being helped by Russian wheat exports continuing to rise in prices. Egypt did buy a large part of their last tender from Russia, but that could change in the future with Russia starting to curb it’s exports.
Pakistan is also in the global wheat market as it just approved to import 300,000 MT of wheat. Currently there is a flour supply shortage that caused a mild panic with increased bread prices last week.
The latest USDA Grain Export Inspections looked good for soybeans.
Soybeans 1,199,136 tons vs 1,149,404 tons last week
Corn 345,859 tons vs 483, 559 tons last week
Wheat 435,129 tons vs 560,976 tons last week
There is market rumor that China bought 2.5 MMT of corn, but so far there has been no USDA confirmation of the sale.
The Association of American Railroads said grain railcar volume last week was down 25.9% from a year ago with year to date volume down 16.1%. This is bearish for traders who are wanting to see more grain on the move to ports with the Phase One Trade Deal signed.
The grain bulls are starting to be supported by funds. Index funds bought a combined 66,047 contracts of corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat over the last five weeks.
Packers continue to limit Saturday slaughter in cattle and it seems to be helping beef prices. Packers were also able to buy cattle steady to $1cwt lower last week. Most of the live trade last week was at a $124 fully steady with the previous week. Dressed trade was mostly at a $199 $1 lower than the previous week’s weighted average.
The cold snap hitting the northern part of the US could limit cattle movement and possibly limit feed performance. This could drop weights over the next couple weeks.
Cash hogs are being called steady to a $1 higher. This has pre-open bid asks looking positive for lean hog futures.
China’s Lunar New Year starts this Saturday January 25th. The holiday features a lot of pork and could mean China will be in for big pork exports to replenish supplies after the holiday.
Cattle on Feed Report will be out Friday.
Pre Report Estimates
Estimate Range of Estimate
On Feed Jan 1 102.2 101.6-102.5
Placed in December 103.2 100.5-105.3
Marketed in Dec 105.2 103.9-105.8
Beef Cutout at Midday Friday
Choice up 1.09 213.99
Select up 1.98 213.45
Choice Select Spread 0.54
Pork Cutout at Midday Friday
Carcass dn 2.82 72.63
Bellies dn 10.16 92.49
122,000 hd today 120,000 hd wk ago 116,931 hd yr ago
498,000 hd today 495,000 hd wk ago 473,381 hd yr ago
Grain Overnight Trade
- Corn dn 1 3/4 – 3
- Soybeans dn 4 1/4 – 7 1/4
- Chicago Wheat up 1 1/4 – 2 1/2
- Kansas City Wheat up dn 1 1/4 – 2 3/4
- Live Cattle dn 0.10 – 0.50
- Feeder Cattle dn 0.15 – 0.55
- Lean Hogs dn 0.72 – 1.70
- Class III Milk up 0.01 – 0.11
Pre-opening Market Broker Commentary
Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today.
Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, discusses factors influencing the livestock trade today.
Midday Market Broker Commentary
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, shares his thoughts on the midday trade factors.
Closing Market Broker Commentary
Closing commentary with John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, and Jack Fenske, York Commodities.