- JBS employees walk off the job on Friday
- Decent cash cattle sales last week
- More optimism on the cattle
- First time in 8 weeks cash is higher than formulated
- Boxed beef could see some slipping again this week
- Exports not great this time of year anyways for cattle but good for hogs
- Deferred cattle are undervalued
- Hogs-weights have been coming down on the hogs.
- Rained more than many had expected
- Weather is taking center stage for corn & beans
Kyle Bumsted, Allendale Inc, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell from a dirt road near Ericson Nebraska. The market discussion centers around livestock. Heat is not only taking it’s toll on the row crops, but it also impacting cattle. This could help to decrease carcass weights. Which have been on the rise since the pandemic caused a backlog of fed cattle. Heat also discourages grilling though. As Bumsted says in the program, “Not many people want to stand in 100+ degree weather and grill a steak.” That creates the question of, where will demand fall going through the rest of summer? Bumsted believes that there will be plenty of meat coming to the market and this may put pressure back on the futures.
Bumsted has also been closely watching spreads and seasonal trends in the livestock markets. His research shows that feeders have a tendency to trend higher though the end of July into August. This happens to parallel when many large video auctions are also occurring.
Grains are not left out of the conversation. In the second half of the Fontanelle Final Bell, Bumsted looks at the technical and weather pattern driving the grain trade.
You can catch the full episode uninterrupted here:
- Weather Weather and Weather
- Holiday trade
- Tuesday report…where do we go from here?
- Psychology of the producer
- Fats & feeders had a solid Thursday trade
- Hog trade
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, the National Farmers Union, along with 11 other groups sent a letter to the Senate Ag Committee requesting a hearing on livestock mandatory price reporting reauthorization.
The Livestock Mandatory Reporting Rule, first established in 1999, mandates price reporting for cattle, boxed beef, swine, and lamb. It’s reauthorized every five years, with the current program expiring on September 30 of this year. The 13 groups say it represents an opportunity to make meaningful change to the program to increase transparency and true price discovery.
According to a 2019 Congressional Research Service report, a common mistake among industry stakeholders is “the low volume of negotiated purchases and a parallel trend toward increased formula purchases or other marketing arrangements.
Other concerns include confidentiality and a lack of clarity on how transactions are categorized in reports.” USCA and the other groups strongly urge the Senate Ag Committee to examine all available solutions to the current market factors depressing livestock prices and the increasing consolidation facing the U.S. cattle industry.
They say the industry is running out of time to work towards a positive reauthorization of the program. USCA says the livestock industry requires “bold leadership to realign the marketplace with its fundamentals, and that starts with modernizing the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Program.”
- Mother nature reminds folks of who’s in charge with the weather forecast
- USMCA is official today
- More perspective of yesterday’s report.
- Shortened trade week with markets closing at noon on Thursday
- Some heave short positions as you compare 2019->2020
- Demand from China for corn & soybeans
- Hog disease that has popped up on the news circuit
- China blocking more countries from shipping meat
Name change for INTL FC Stone. China & the growing corn deficit, Army worms-is that a concern for China. Where are we at for Phase One with China…a lot of opposite information. Progression of the winter wheat harvest. How are drought areas dealing with harvest? Early Russian harvest is better then expected. Bayer has a deal with Round-Up & dicamba. Hogs & Pigs report out on Thursday. Update on African Swine Fever
Some rain in the western corn belt. Rains were wide spread across the corn belt. Crop progress out this afternoon. Weekly export report showed some strong numbers for corn, but soft for beans. Livestock, doesn’t have anything outstanding on the cattle on feed report. How is consumer demand going, with weather & restaurants starting to reopen. boxed beef prices averaged the lowest the market’s seen since the week of April 11. China and trade deal work-banning poultry from Arkansas & Tyson. Hog market sees week cash
The backlog of hogs in states hit hardest by the meatpacking industry crisis is just now easing up somewhat. Hundreds of thousands of hogs were killed by producers who had nowhere to send the animals for processing.
While that number is short of the initial slaughter estimates of millions of hogs, the pork industry still needs financial assistance to cover the cost of euthanizing animals as well as for the price losses from COVID-19. They’re also asking for help getting mental health resources for farmers who were understandably disturbed by having to kill their animals for disposal. “The drain on equity and the financial and emotional crisis that farmers are facing is not resolved,” says Dave Preisler, CEO of the Minnesota Pork Producers Association.
Producers have gone to great lengths to reduce the backlog and avoid on-farm slaughter. Some have been shipping hogs to processors out of state or selling directly to individuals looking to stockpile meat. Others have started contracting with smaller processors, who’ve seen an unprecedented rise in their business. Still, Politico says those measures haven’t fully solved the large pileup of excess hogs.
Markets on Tuesday started with a risk on sentiment. By the close even the outside equities had faded on that sentiment. Grains ended mixed with spread action setting up between corn and wheat. Wheat is being sold on decent crop conditions, but also seasonal harvest market pressure. Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, joined the Fontanelle Final Bell and discussed the seasonality of the current marketing trends in the grains. Hackett is eyeing the Minneapolis spring wheat market as the signal for a turn around in the market. “Spring wheat is growing right now and very susceptible to a weather issue.” According to Hackett. During the Fontanelle Final Bell Hackett also highlights recent research his team has done about global crop insects and pests that could impact the markets later this year.
The second half of the Fonatenelle Final Bell is dedicated to livestock. Hackett starts with Class III milk futures and highlights that the recent upswing may be over done at $20. Hackett also doesn’t believe the live cattle lean hog spread can continue much higher.
Hear the full program here:
Markets had an almost standstill type of feel to it. How do you market in a day like today. There is a move to a weather-related market, as winds pick up & rain has stopped in many areas. Crop Progress report out this afternoon, any surprises expected? Stabilization to the ethanol market. So, IS China back into the market for U.S. beans? The Real has slipped a bit, is there pressure from South America for grain purchases & China? Livestock, just like grains had an uneventful trading day. Feeders did push to some higher money, but not by much. Cash looks to be steady this week, we have a cattle on feed report on Friday. How will that effect the trade? Sue is a bit more price positive to the hog market.