- Quarterly grain stocks report out on Wednesday
- Yields are coming in better than expected
- What do we do with grain coming off the combine?
- China is set to go on holiday
- Hogs went up fast
- Cattle on feed report…chance for more cattle to come off grass faster?
- Is some of the markets preparing for what can be said in tonight’s debate?
- Nervousness over the next 6-8 weeks
- Control what you can control
- Officially entered the pre-election madness which will bring market volatility
- We will get more wait & see to sell until this is all over
- We are moving into the core weather worry for South America
- Winter wheat issues in Russia…any issues here in the states? They are #1 exporter
- Dairy update-there is some worries about post-election
- Cattle on Feed Report-reaction
- Hogs & Pigs Report-reaction
The quarterly hogs and pigs report released by the USDA showed that in the third quarter of 2020 the US hog inventory was up 1% vs. year ago levels.
According to USDA the US inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2020 was 79.1 million head. This was up 1% from September 1, 2019, but down 1% from June 1, 2020. Breeding inventory, at 6.33 million head, was down 2% from last year, but up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 72.8 million head, was up 1% percent from last year, but down 1% from last quarter. The June-August 2020 pig crop, at 35.1 million head, was down 3% from 2019. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.18 million head, down 3% from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.04 for the June-August period, compared to 11.11 last year.
US hog producers intend to have 3.12 million sows farrow during the September-November 2020 quarter, down 5% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 3% from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for December 2020-February 2021, at 3.11 million sows, are down 1%
from the same period one year earlier, but up slightly from the same period two years earlier.
The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 47% of the total United States hog inventory, down 1% from the previous year.
Darrell Holaday, Country Futures, believes there is some discrepancy between the USDA data and the cash hog market. Cash hogs continue to move higher which doesn’t line up with a larger supply as the data indicates.
- Soybeans and what the potential is for this crop
- Situation in China includes building hogs & expanding poultry
- South America planting is underway
- One in six restaurants failing nationally…the next 6 months do not look good
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on a turn around Tuesday in the ag commodity markets. Zuzolo highlights that today’s pullback was bound to happen sooner rather than later. Still in the soybean complex it’s good to see the July contract holding the strong physiological level of ten dollars. Now the question becomes can the current run of Chinese demand and South American production workout to allow the rally to continue. Zuzolo also breaks down the current buys being made by China and how they compare in the big picture of the Phase One Trade Deal.
In the second half of the program Zuzolo talks funds in the ag commodities and livestock. Cattle may be starting to hit overbought levels despite the fact cattle seasonally are in a slump after the Labor Day holiday. The conversation ends on the importance African Swine Fever still has on the markets.
Catch the full show here:
- Low week on the cash cattle
- Some cattle trading at 102-does that mean a turn?
- Are people to bearish on the cattle market
- Hogs still traded higher at weeks end
- Positive boar overseas with ASF
- China continues to windrow the hogs, corn & beans
- WASDE & Acre report numbers
Wet weather moving through the Midwest
4.00 corn a ways out on the futures but what does that mean for corn
lean hog index above $60 first time since May 28th
- Beans…fielding a lot of questions from growers
- Upcoming WASDE Report
- Next year’s thoughts
- Cattle has been an ugly dog
- December hogs…keeps moving patience is paying off
- Where are we going from here?
- What do we have for a crop size?
- looking at past yields, what can we learn?
- Is there a risk premium before harvest
- South American farmers are getting ready for early planting with fwd. selling
- big cattle supplies…is the marketing lull there
- Will China be the big savior in the hogs?
- Hurricane Laura
- Lack of rain in the Midwest
- Look for another downturn in crop ratings on Monday
- Better chance for rain starting Friday
- China & its corn & soybean purchases
- Bloomberg story on soybeans & China
- What happens after the purchases?
- Will we see buying after January 1?
- Cattle market trade took a hit on the futures today
- ASF & China