Crazy week of reports. From the January 10th report, Phase One, USMCA…but still beans had a rough week. Shows volatility & one needs to be prepared. Last 60 days we have been in a tight range. Ethanol margins remain tight…China even mentioned ethanol in Phase One. South American weather & current harvest. Hogs could see the boost from the trade deals. There is money to be made in the cattle market right now.
Tomorrow’s signing day with China. A lot of stories about what be included. WTO guidelines. Chinese imports. Bird flu update for China. Turkey’s in Northern Hungary as well. We continue to see tight ethanol supplies. Weather updates for South America. Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop. Livestock market & what China’s hog market looks like. Some short term technical on cattle.
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Quiet day in the market trade. China needs help…food for both people & livestock. Will we see any fireworks from Wednesday’s signing? Bird flu in China with swans. Ethanol margins remain tights. Weekly export numbers on the softer side. Why are we seeing lower numbers in the livestock? Chinese New Year Celebrations.
USDA WASDE Report. Nothing friendly on the grain report. Unicorn type of day! Brad explains. How do the basis numbers look? Ethanol/DDG’s & China. Cattle prices were higher with the hopes that the cash would see some higher Friday trade numbers. Macro’s for the cattle not great. Middle of a big fund role. Negative side of the market is the cut-out value-cutting back on Saturday kills. No real threat in the weather-does that make you nervous? Hogs still caught in the same trading range.
Pre-Report trade. If the wheat is leading higher on the S&D Report the dollar will have a reaction. Trade might not be worried about the corn. bullish surprise in the report though could be the corn, seeing where we are at in harvest. Phase Two comes after elections. Phase one is on track for January 15th. Iran still being talked about. World Supply Demands with South America. Winter seeding for the wheat brought to the front of the classroom. USMCA. Wall Street Journal & the tide turning. Cattle market & waiting for the cash continues to be on the quiet side.
China…they are scrapping their ethanol program & what does that mean? GCI China talks of lifting duties on DDG’s. Ethanol mandate by 2020, was never bought into. Due to weather, the USDA report delayed until Friday along with the WASDE report. Political talk making national news, is the current issues with Iran having any effect on the markets? ASF hits again in Bulgaria. Consolidation in the cattle as they wait for the cash to fully develop.
Blahh negativity markets. Seems to be the tone for the trade this week. A lot of stock being put into this trade deal. January report…different from last year when we had no report. USMCA moving forward in the Senate. Weather in South America. Some spread activity in cattle, nothing like what we saw in yesterday’s trade. Hog market looking at China going into deep freeze for pork to feed people. Impossible Foods wanting to move into the “Pork” market & offer to Asia.
Quiet grain trade, full trading week, coming out of holidays, focus turning towards taxes. China signing, USMCA talk. Political action, South America. Now into an election year. USDA report out on Friday. Corn & wheat lower, beans higher. Struggles in Australia & the effects on the U.S. markets. Strong start to the marketing week for cattle. Is there a chance for a pull back on cattle Tuesday?
Chinese trade deal waiting…part of the reason for the bean drop. Running out of steam in the markets. Buy the rumor sell the facts is the feel to the trade. Have we run the market up to much? Export numbers. Market for now is going to say its traded Phase One. Weather in South America is pretty good. Geo-political, bombings in Iran its effects on Wall Street & the dollar. Dairy side of the market has made a top. How long will the correction continue? Cattle market on the holiday slowdown. Limit down trade on the hogs.
Last trading day of 2019. A look back & a look forward in both the grain & livestock. Some try for profits to wrap up the trading year, but a quiet final trading day for 2019. A signing date of January 15th with China. ASF will continue to be a story in 2020.