Crazy week of reports. From the January 10th report, Phase One, USMCA…but still beans had a rough week. Shows volatility & one needs to be prepared. Last 60 days we have been in a tight range. Ethanol margins remain tight…China even mentioned ethanol in Phase One. South American weather & current harvest. Hogs could see the boost from the trade deals. There is money to be made in the cattle market right now.
Why have the markets been down so much since the phase one trade deal came out? What are some of the details of the trade deal that you found encouraging? Are there parts of the trade deal that concern you? What does the market focus on now going forward?
How does the corn export demand look? How does the corn ethanol demand look? What does it take to turn the market back higher?
Phase One is signed. What is the market direction for the next few months pushing through winter. Beyond the trade deal USMCA would be the next big push. Brazil real vs. U.S. dollar. We will have better demand going into 2020, but don’t expect it first quarter. Feeder cattle charts. Could we see stabilization in the hog market? Current livestock demand.
The United States and China are set to take a step toward trade peace after 18 months of economic skirmishing. President Donald Trump and China’s chief trade negotiator plan to sign a modest agreement Wednesday that would ease some U.S. economic sanctions on China and have Beijing step up purchases of American farm products and other goods.
The deal would lower tensions in a fight that has slowed global growth, hurt American manufacturers and weighed on the Chinese economy. But the “Phase 1” agreement would do little to force China to make the major economic changes such as reducing unfair subsidies for its own companies.
President Donald Trump signed a trade agreement with China Wednesday. The phase one deal, according to the Trump administration, is worth an extra $40-50 billion annually over the next two years in U.S. agricultural sales to China.
However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer earlier this week called the deal weak, suggesting Trump reached a watered-down agreement to claim a “win” during his reelection campaign. Further information suggests the figure may be $32 billion in increased ag purchases, not $40-50 billion.
Senator Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, attended the ceremony. Grassley welcomes the agreement but says, “Not only must China follow through with its commitments in this phase one deal, but also work toward a comprehensive agreement.”
President Trump says the agreement removes trade barriers for U.S. agricultural products, particularly for beef. Meanwhile, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the agreement will benefit many different U.S. farm commodities.
The agreement should be implemented within 30 days, according to the Trump Administration.
Washington D.C. — Today, Rep. Cindy Axne (IA-03), the only Iowa member of the House Agriculture Committee, released the following statement ahead of the signing of a ‘Phase 1’ trade agreement between the United States and China:
“As this administration has pursued a prolonged trade war with China, Iowa farmers have been the ones to pay the price.
As I’ve traveled through Southwest Iowa, I have heard concerns directly from farmers I represent in Washington — concerns about how long this trade war has gone on, how difficult it will be to reclaim lost markets, and how deep the seeds of uncertainty have been laid as a result of protracted tensions with China.
I’m hopeful that today’s Phase 1 agreement with China puts us on a path to ending this harmful trade war, and I will closely monitor the implementation to ensure Iowans are receiving what they’re promised.
While we have not received all the details of the finalized agreement, I will be looking to see if it will result in more purchases of Iowa’s agricultural products and reduce the harmful impacts of the tariffs on American businesses and consumers.
This administration must finalize a deal that will be enough to make up for what Iowa farmers have lost. We have seen China go back on their word time and time again, and any agreement must reflect a need for guarantees and enforcement mechanisms to protect our farmers’ futures.”
China’s purchases of U.S. pork and soybeans rebounded in November and December, ahead of today’s (Wednesday’s) signing of the phase one trade agreement between the two nations.
Reuters reports that Chinese agricultural imports from the United States were at 14.1 billion yuan, or $2 billion, in December. A Chinese customs spokesperson says the increase in imports of soybeans and pork comes as “positive U.S.-China trade sentiment has boosted companies’ confidence in December.” African swine fever has severely reduced China’s hog herd, the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork.
China has since increased exports of U.S. pork to record levels. Pork exports to China and Hong Kong were up 49 percent in value at $1.18 billion from January to November 2019. Consumer prices for pork in China nearly doubled since the initial outbreak of African swine fever, and efforts to rebuild the hog herd in China are slow going. China has also released frozen pork from state-owned reserves to help ease the situation for consumers.
Tomorrow’s signing day with China. A lot of stories about what be included. WTO guidelines. Chinese imports. Bird flu update for China. Turkey’s in Northern Hungary as well. We continue to see tight ethanol supplies. Weather updates for South America. Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop. Livestock market & what China’s hog market looks like. Some short term technical on cattle.
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Quiet day in the market trade. China needs help…food for both people & livestock. Will we see any fireworks from Wednesday’s signing? Bird flu in China with swans. Ethanol margins remain tights. Weekly export numbers on the softer side. Why are we seeing lower numbers in the livestock? Chinese New Year Celebrations.