Tag Archives: cattle

Will cash stay where it is?  The difference between the board and cash…not seeing bids from buyers.    How will dairy in buyouts going to affect the market?  How big will these livestock get waiting to be processed.  Overall economy…unemployment numbers keep growing how does beef demand look going forward?  How will premium cuts suffer?  Do we have to go back to ’08 to look the struggles?  Limit down struggles continue in the hog market as well.  How does that filter into the grain market?  Ethanol & Carbon Dioxide.  May WASDE report and old crop balance sheets are talked about.  What about new crop balance sheets?

 

 

Price movements and volatility over the past month for commodities have been striking. Figure 1, prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City, shows price changes and volatility indexes this year compared to last year for selected commodities and equity indexes. The COVID-19 pandemic, economic stoppage, consumer behavior, and underlying supply and demand conditions created a whirlwind of uncertainty and volatility in the markets. In order to get a sense of how the commodity price movements might impact Nebraska agricultural producers, estimates were calculated on how the changes in prices in March could impact revenues for Nebraska’s three largest agricultural sectors—beef cattle, corn, and soybeans.

FIGURE 1: CHANGES IN PRICES & VOLATILITY, SELECTED COMMODITIES
Source: From presentation by Nathan Kaufman, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, on webinar sponsored by FarmDoc Daily at the University of Illinois, March 27, 2020.

 

Beef Cattle: Estimates of the potential impact to Nebraska’s cattle sector were calculated borrowing approaches used by Kansas State agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor. Tonsor calculated the price changes over the past few weeks could impact the nation’s cattle sector between $7.98-$9.4 billion. Estimating impacts to the cattle sector is complicated by the different sectors in the industry (cow/calf operators, stockers, backgrounders, and feeders) and the timing of cattle sales throughout the year.

 

Informal inquiries of persons in the industry suggested 95 percent of the cows in Nebraska calve in the spring. Of the calves born, 75 percent are weaned and sold in the fall, a few are kept and sold as yearlings the following year, and the remainder backgrounded and sold in winter or early next spring. Assuming 20 percent of last year’s calf crop was held and backgrounded for sale in April and using the April feeder cattle futures contract declines between March 2 and March 25 of $6.60/cwt., results in a $49.50 per head or $17.8 million impact to these producers. Assuming a calf crop of 1.77 million head this year, with 75 percent of the calves sold in the fall, and using the declines in the October feeder cattle futures contract, equates to a potential $71.9 million impact to the sector.

 

The USDA reported 2.5 million head of cattle in the state’s feedlots as of March 1. Estimates of the impacts to the feeding sector are complicated by the fact some of the cattle in the feedlots had already been marketed, or hedged, prior to March, but some not. Additionally, the price changes in March changed the economics of cattle placed in feedlots during the month and over the remainder of the year. So, using the average decline in the April and August feeder cattle futures contracts between March 2 and March 25 of $7.56/cwt., or $105.84 per head, and assessing it against the 2.5 million head on feed on March 1 suggests an impact of $264.6 million. In total, then, the price declines in the cattle markets between March 2 and March 25 might have a $354 million impact on the state’s cattle sector.

 

Corn/Soybeans: According to data provided by the Nebraska Corn Board, 43 percent of the corn marketed during the year is sold in the months of March-September, and 36 percent is sold between October-December. For these estimates, the assumption was made soybeans are marketed similarly. To calculate the price declines, changes in the appropriate futures contracts between March 2 and 25 were used, and changes in the basis were also considered using Kansas State University crop basis maps. Using last year’s crop production numbers, and the assumptions noted above, corn and soybean producers selling 2019 production this year could see an impact of $387 million. Using assumptions of crop production levels this year, and the share of new crop production which will be sold yet this year, equates to impacts on this year’s production of $280 million. So, the total potential impact to corn and soybean producers could amount to $667 million.

 

Summary: Compared to pre-COVID prices, Nebraska’s cattle, corn, and soybean producers might see a potential impact of $1.02 billion, or 5 percent of Nebraska’s annual agricultural receipts. These estimates are simplistic and do not account expense reductions which might occur which could offset the revenue impact. For these reasons, the estimates are intended to provide a sense of the magnitude of the impacts to Nebraska’s largest industry during these uncertain times and volatile prices and not an accurate accounting. Fortunately, for some in agriculture, there is flexibility regarding the timing of sales so they might be able to seize better market opportunities over the next few months.

Corn stalk numbers, a new production estimate from Brazil, which brings a drop in soybean estimates.  Weather in SA.  Ethanol concerns here in the U.S. & S.A.  Limit down trade in the cattle & the hogs again today.  Aggressive buying of meat has been accomplished & we are seeing a drop in demand.

 

MANHATTAN, Kan. — The director of a Kansas State University veterinary laboratory that responds to animal health issues across the state says that while coronavirus is a disease familiar to livestock producers, it is not the same strain of the virus that is grabbing headlines across the globe.

The novel strain of coronavirus, COVID-19, is transmitted through humans. There is no evidence that livestock can transmit the disease to humans, and the food products from livestock cannot carry COVID-19 to humans.

“Producers are well aware that there is a (different strain of) coronavirus that is associated with neo-natal diarrhea, and there’s another one that we think is now associated with cattle respiratory disease,” said Gregg Hanzlicek, director of the production animal field investigations unit in K-State’s Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory.

“But I want to make it perfectly clear that our cattle coronavirus has no relationship to the coronavirus that is currently circulating in humans. These coronaviruses are very species-specific. There is absolutely no indication that livestock can be carriers of COVID-19 and be a source of infection to humans, either through carrying it on their skin or their hair or anywhere else.”

He added: “Milk, eggs, beef pork…whatever proteins that are produced by livestock are absolutely safe to eat. People do not have to worry about those products carrying COVID-19 to the population.”

Listen to Gregg Hanzlicek on Agriculture Today

Hanzlicek said that producers are safe to go about the business of taking care of animals: “They need to minimize the amount of exposure they have to humans. At this point, they should keep on doing what they do every day with their livestock.”

Livestock producers who think they may have been exposed to COVID-19 should see their medical professional. If their livestock begin showing signs of illness, as well, Hanzlicek said they should contact their local veterinarian.

“The local vet will call the state or federal veterinarian and then a decision will be made whether to test those animals for COVID-19,” Hanzlicek said. “We don’t want to just start blanket sampling all animals. Again, with this virus, we do not believe that livestock are associated with spreading the disease.”

Hanzlicek said that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has relaxed its rules just a bit to allow producers to consult with a veterinarian through ‘tele-medicine’ – that is, communicating sickness to a veterinarian by phone or online technology.

“The veterinarian is not necessarily required to make a trip to actually look at the animals,” thus maintaining ‘social distance’ guidelines for humans, Hanzlicek said.

The K-State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, which tests samples for suspected livestock disease, remains open during the university’s limited operations status. Hanzlicek said the lab is open 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday, and 8 a.m. to noon on Saturday.

Hanzlicek and others also are still available to travel throughout Kansas to help local veterinarians diagnose suspected livestock disease. The staff can be contacted by calling 785-532-5650, or through its web site, www.ksvdl.org.

Hanzlicek said the FDA also maintains a useful site with information for livestock owners regarding COVID-19.

Planting intentions report, where did the acres go, stocks, ethanol. Is there questioning of the USDA numbers? From end of month, end of quarter and moving into a new month how prices will fair be going into April. Human abilities and the futures. Long calls for the cattle market. Crazy livestock trade, COVID-19 & JBS. Volatility is there for the livestock stronger then we have seen in a long time.

 

DENVER – March 30, 2020 – In the latest effort to address myths about beef production and nutrition, Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner., managed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, has released a new video series, ‘Real Facts About Real Beef.’ The videos highlight real farmers and ranchers and other beef experts candidly addressing some of the most common misconceptions and questions about cattle and beef.

 

According to market research, 52 percent of people agree that they trust the people who raise cattle[i]; however, only 27 percent of people say they are knowledgeable about how cattle are raised. [ii] In a time when consumers are more removed from food production than ever, these videos deliver facts directly from the source – beef farmers and ranchers, as well as credentialed experts in the fields of sustainability, human nutrition, and more.

 

The videos in this series include:

  • Real Facts About Real Beef: Red Meat and Health – Cattle rancher and life coach, Kiah Twisselman, takes on the myth that “red meat is bad for your health” in this video. She highlights that, while there are many mixed messages on the internet about certain foods being bad or good for your health, it is ultimately important that people are eating a well-balanced diet with nutrient dense foods like lean beef.

 

  • Real Facts About Real Beef: Cattle Production and Climate Change – In this video, Carlyn Petersen, an animal biology doctoral student, is tasked with addressing the myth that “methane from cattle is the leading cause of climate change.” She tackles this myth head on with the real fact that cattle only contribute about two percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. and that the leading contributor of greenhouse gas is actually the burning of fossil fuels.

 

  • Real Facts About Real Beef: Grazing Cattle vs. Crops – Mike Williams, a cattle rancher and owner of Diamond W Cattle Company, addresses the myth that “instead of letting cattle graze all over, we could be using that land to grow crops for humans.” As a rancher in the western U.S., Williams knows best and shares how cattle largely graze on land that isn’t suitable for growing crops, and that this land actually thrives when grazed properly.

 

  • Real Facts About Real Beef: Cattle Production and the Environment  – For this video, Dr. Frank Mitloehner, a leading expert on cattle and sustainability, debunks the myth that “cattle production and farming is harmful to the environment, creating soil erosion, water pollution and poor air quality.” Dr. Mitloehner explains that, as an animal science researcher, he has found the exact opposite to be true, and that, in fact, a properly run ranch or farm will sequester carbon and promote biodiversity.

 

“’Real Facts About Real Beef’ is one more way Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. is working to help ensure consumers are informed when it comes to how beef is produced and the nutrients it delivers,” said Buck Wehrbein, federation division chair at NCBA. “These videos are a powerful way we’re able to share fact- and science-based information about beef production and nutrition with these important audiences.”

 

The ‘Real Facts About Real Beef’ videos will be promoted on social media platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter, to help address misinformation about beef production and its role in a healthy, sustainable diet. In addition to addressing the myths head on, the videos direct consumers to BeefItsWhatsForDinner.com for additional information.

 

This video series is just the latest from Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. in an effort to debunk myths about the beef industry. In mid-January, new ads, complete with the brand’s unique personality and swagger, were rolled out addressing the topics of health, sustainability and meat substitutes. The initial six-week digital media flight generated more than 35 million consumer touchpoints, reaching more than 11.6 million consumers multiple times.

In addition to these myth busting efforts, Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. is giving consumers a behind-the-scenes look at beef production with 360° virtual ranch tours. The videos take consumers on an educational journey to farms and ranches across the United States to learn how beef farmers and ranchers raise cattle to produce high-quality beef.

“As a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, we are committed to ensuring consumers, media, chefs, dietitians foodservice, retail partners and other stakeholders have the facts and information they need when it comes to the beef industry,” said Alisa Harrison, senior vice president of global marketing and research at NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff.

 

For more facts about real beef, visit www.BeefItWhatsForDinner.com.

What is going on in the cattle market & how do we survive it?  Friday finished another limit down day.  How do we recover?  Recap of the cash markets this week.  What is the packers story from their side?  Hogs also see a limit down trade.  Talk of China recover from COVID-19 they will need the proteins.  Drop in the corn market.  Energy is pulling the market lower.

 

 

MANHATTAN, Kan. — People of all ages walking around wearing ear buds seems to be a common sight in society today. Often it leads a person to wonder, “What are they all listening to?”

For cow/calf producers interested in learning practical information to address the challenges of raising beef cattle, it just might be the Kansas State University Beef Cattle Institute weekly podcast.

BCI Cattle Chat is a 25-30-minute podcast lead by moderator Brad White, BCI director and veterinarian will be posting its 100th episode on March 27, 2020. The weekly podcast features beef cattle health and management advice from Kansas State experts Bob Larson, veterinarian; Bob Weaber, beef cattle extension specialist; and Dustin Pendell, agricultural economist.

Those four began the podcast in July 2018 to bring together experts from the Kansas State College of Agriculture and College of Veterinary Medicine, White said.

“The goal of the podcast is to effectively communicate relevant, practical information for beef producers and veterinarians through this format,” White said. The format includes 5-8 minute segments on an array of beef cattle topics.

White said their listenership continues to grow. “Last month there were 5,474 downloads from 26 countries.”

With an increasing number of listeners, the podcast team continues to receive listener questions from Kansas and around the globe.

“Our team really appreciates the questions from listeners and the feedback we receive on the podcast. The listener questions allow us to directly address topics important to producers,” White said.

He also values the discussions that happen on the podcast, especially the ones with outside guests who join on occasion. Many of these guests are well-recognized experts in their field.

“I enjoy the interaction with our team and guests because everyone has a different perspective and we can discuss many sides of an issue,” White said.

To listen to this podcast search for BCI Cattle Chat wherever podcasts are found.

Light selling in the wheat…how did that effect the corn trade?  Oil & ethanol concerns.  How soon will we be back to normal? Planting intentions report due out at months end.  Could we see increase in unplanted acres?  Corn/bean ratio and what are we seeing in the basis?  Cattle market on expanded limits, one needs the other.  Is Tyson’s announcement effecting the markets?

 

It was a good market day with positive Ag markets.  Stock market wasn’t the best, Dow down.  Double digit increases in soybeans & Chicago/KC wheat.  Sue looks at the money leaving the stock market on rallies.  Money will find safety.  Ag could see a good return on their investment.  Packers are offering certain bids…but a bill in the house will focus on bottom prices for cattle to be purchased.  Will we see decreased numbers in next cold storage report?  Thoughts on the planting intentions report while looking at some new grain movement issues out of South America.