Tag Archives: WASDE

WASHINGTON (DTN) — One of the first looks at the 2018-19 crop production projects the U.S. corn crop at 14.04 billion bushels with an average yield of 174 bushels per acre.

The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) offers the first forecasts for crop production and ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year.

Soybean production is projected at 4.28 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels an acre.

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Production for 2018-19 is pegged at 14.04 billion bushels with ending stocks forecast at 1.682 billion bushels, down 500 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop.

Old-crop ending stocks for corn are unchanged from the April forecast at 2.18 billion bushels.

Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 87 million metric tons, down 5 mmt from April’s projection.

SOYBEANS

USDA projects the 2018-19 soybean crop at 4.28 billion bushels, down 112 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop year. Soybean new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 415 million bushels.

Old-crop ending stocks are projected at 530 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month’s projection.

USDA bumped up Brazil’s soybean production to 117 million metric tons, up 2 mmt from the April report. Argentina’s production was dropped again to 39 mmt, down 1 mmt from April.

WHEAT

All winter wheat is projected at 1.19 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago. The winter wheat yield is projected at 48.1 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year.

Hard red winter wheat is projected at 647 million bushels, slightly above the pre-report average estimate. Hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be down 14% from last year’s crop. Soft red winter wheat is projected at 315 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago. White winter wheat is projected at 229 million bushels.

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Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT Thursday as he looks at USDA’s “initial” estimates for the 2018-2019 crops as well as changes to old-crop supply and demand tables. To register, visit https://dtn.webex.com/….

May Average High Low April 2016-17
Corn 2,182 2,178 2,208 2,132 2,182 2,293
Soybeans 530 541 565 490 550 302
Grain Sorghum 29 30 32 28 29 33
Wheat 1,070 1,067 1,090 941 1,064 1,181
2018-19 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook
Corn 1,682 1,631 1,907 1,467 2,272
Soybeans 415 549 715 336 460
Wheat 955 923 1,005 780 931
2018-19 U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2017
Corn 14,040 14,091 14,604 13,921 14,390 14,604
Soybeans 4,280 4,311 4,430 4,248 4,320 4,392
2018-19 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2017-18
All Wheat 1,821 1,757 1,832 1,612 1,839 1,741
All Winter Wheat 1,192 1,180 1,304 1,062 NA 1,269
HRW 647 644 797 540 NA 750
SRW 315 306 330 218 NA 292
White 229 230 260 201 NA 227
2017-18 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low April 2016-17
Corn 194.85 195.20 198.00 192.20 197.78 230.90
Soybeans 92.16 90.00 91.00 88.50 90.80 96.72
Wheat 270.46 271.30 273.40 268.50 271.22 254.60
2018-19 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low
Corn 159.15 182.00 192.50 148.70
Soybeans 86.70 91.10 97.00 75.50
Wheat 264.33 267.70 278.70 260.00
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018
May Avg. High Low April 2016-17
Corn
Brazil corn 87.0 88.2 91.0 83.9 92.0 98.5
Argentina corn 33.0 32.1 33.0 31.0 33.0 41.0
Soybeans
Brazil soybeans 117.0 116.6 119.0 115.0 115.0 114.1
Argentina soybeans 39.0 38.6 40.0 37.0 40.0 57.8
2017-18 2016-17
Wheat May Apr May Apr
European Union 151.58 151.60 145.37 145.25
FSU – 12 142.20 142.77 130.09 130.47

ROCKVILLE, Md. (DTN) — As expected, USDA trimmed estimates for the South American corn crop, while predicting a record Brazilian soybean crop of 115 million metric tons (4.2 billion bushels).

Argentine soybeans are expected to decline to just 40 million metric tons (1.5 billion bushels), below what analysts expected.

Domestically, USDA made a small upward adjustment to U.S. corn ending stocks to 2.182 billion bushels, well within pre-report expectations. USDA also trimmed U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 550 million bushels, also within pre-report estimates.

These numbers were released in USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday.

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA lowered Argentine corn production from 36 million to 33 million metric tons (1.3 billion bushels), due to lower-than-expected yield and harvested area, as dry conditions increase the amount of corn acreage used for forage and grazing.

Brazil corn production was also lowered from 94.5 million metric tons to 92 million metric tons (3.6 billion bushels), reflecting expectations of a smaller second-crop acreage.

If realized, Brazil and Argentine corn production would be 14.5 million metric tons (570 million bushels) below the record crop of 2016-17.

As a result, USDA also projected lower global corn ending stocks at 197.8 million metric tons (7.8 billion bushels), down 1.39 million metric tons from the March estimate.

Domestically, USDA trimmed U.S. feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, and also knocked 5 million bushels off of food, seed and industrial use. That led to a direct increase of 55 million bushels in corn ending stocks from the March estimate, for a final estimate of 2.182 billion bushels.

The average U.S. farmgate price remained unchanged at $3.35 per bushel, but the range was narrowed to $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel.

SOYBEANS

USDA estimated that the Brazilian soybean crop will reach 115 million metric tons (4.2 billion bushels), thanks to higher projected yields in Mato Grosso from beneficial rains. USDA lowered Argentine soybean production to 40 million metric tons (1.5 billion bushels), as a result of continued drought there.

Globally, soybean ending stocks fell 3.6 million metric tons to 90.8 million metric tons (3.3 billion bushels).

Domestically, USDA increased soybean crush demand by 10 million bushels to a record 1,970 million bushels, but also lowered seed and residual use. The final ending stock number of 550 million bushels was a 5-million-bushel decrease from the March estimate.

The average U.S. farmgate price for soybeans was pegged at $9.30 per bushel.

WHEAT

Domestic wheat ending stocks were increased 30 million bushels to 1.064 billion bushels, based on lower feed and residual use.

The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was $4.65 per bushel.

Globally, wheat ending stocks reached 271.2 million metric tons (10 billion bushels), up 2.3 million metric tons from the March estimate.

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Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, April 10, as he looks at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit https://bit.ly/….

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2017-2018
Apr. Avg. High Low Mar. 2016-17
Corn 2,182 2,192 2,265 2,050 2,127 2,293
Soybeans 550 570 609 520 555 302
Sorghum 29 23 26 20 24 33
Wheat 1,064 1,040 1,080 1,010 1,034 1,181
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2017-2018
Apr. Avg. High Low Mar. 2016-17
Corn 197.8 197.0 202.0 191.5 199.2 231.9
Soybeans 90.8 92.9 96.0 91.0 94.4 96.7
Wheat 271.2 268.4 270.0 266.5 268.9 252.6
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018
Apr. Avg. High Low Mar. 2016-17
Corn
Brazil corn 92.0 92.2 96.0 86.5 94.5 98.5
Argentina corn 33.0 33.5 36.0 31.0 36.0 41.0
Soybeans
Brazil soybeans 115.0 115.6 118.0 113.3 113.0 114.1
Argentina soybeans 40.0 42.3 45.0 39.0 47.0 57.8