U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $134.0 billion with imports at $112.5 billion for a trade surplus of $21.5 billion, according to USDA’s Outlook for US Agricultural Trade.
The forecast for Fiscal 2017 agricultural exports is up $1 billion from USDA’s August forecast “largely due to expected increases in dairy and livestock byproduct exports.” USDA has upped forecast dairy exports by $500 million, at $5.3 billion.
“Grain and feed exports are forecast up $300 million, to $29.6 billion, driven primarily by stronger wheat volumes and unit values as well as by corn volumes, helping to offset expected declines in rice exports,” USDA detailed. “Cotton exports are forecast at $4.4 billion, a $200 million increase, due to a poor harvest in Brazil and production uncertainty in India.”
Soybean exports are also forecast higher, as USDA noted “export volumes continue to set records, raising the soybean forecast $500 million, which is countered by expected declines in soybean meal, soybean oil and other oilseed products. Overall, the oilseed and product forecast remains unchanged at $31 billion.”
China still forecast as the lead destination. Forecasts to China and Mexico received the largest upward adjustments, each increasing $300 million. China continues to be forecast as the top market for fiscal year 2017 at $21.8 billion, followed by Canada ($21.3 billion) and Mexico ($18.3 billion).
U.S. agricultural imports in Fiscal 2017 are forecast down $1 billion from the August outlook. “Reduced imports of horticultural, sugar, and tropical products are leading the forecast decline,” USDA said.
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to increase to $21.5 billion in Fiscal 2017 compared to $19.5 billion forecast in August.