An analysis of tariff proposals on the U.S. shows Midwest states will feel the brunt of the damage.
IHS Markit, a business and financial consulting company, says any action that reduces demand for U.S. agricultural products would reduce prices received by farmers for their output, and diminish farm incomes. China has proposed tariffs on U.S. ag items, including staple exports of pork and soybeans, among others.
The report says Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa have the most exposure, with farm income accounting for at least three percent of total personal income in the state from 2014 to 2016. The report notes that some states with large agricultural industries, such as Illinois, have small shares of farm income as a percent of total personal income because of their large metro areas.
Outside the middle of the country, California and Washington will see tariff impacts as they are major producers of fruits and tree nuts that are on the initial tariffs list, according to the report, which suggests the economic impact will worsen if China follows through on all of its proposed tariffs.