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Record Brazil Soybean Production Expected | KTIC Radio

Record Brazil Soybean Production Expected

WASHINGTON (DTN) — The big mover in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates was Brazil’s soybean crop, which was pegged at a record 108 million metric tons, an increase of 4 million tons from last month’s forecast.

Domestically, USDA also increased 2016-17 U.S. soybean ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 435 million bushels.


Brazil’s forecast production to 91.5 million metric tons — a 4 million metric ton increase — was based on reported first crop yields at record highs while also seeing rapid planting progress for the country’s second-crop corn in parts of the country.

Argentina’s corn production was also increased by 1 million metric tons to 37.5 million metric tons due to higher than expected yield results from early-planted corn.

Collectively, global corn ending stocks for 2016-17 were raised 3.08 million metric tons due to those South American increases, as well as Iran and South Africa.

As the pre-market reports pegged, USDA kept 2016-17 corn ending stocks at 2.32 billion bushels. USDA did make some adjustments to use, however. Corn for ethanol was bumped up 50 million bushels to 5.4 billion bushels while feed and other residual uses was lowered a comparable 50 million bushels. USDA cited increased use of sorghum for feed as the rationale for the change.

USDA kept corn exports at 2.225 billion bushels despite exports running 68% ahead of last year’s pace as of the end of February.

The projected farmgate price for corn remained unchanged with a midpoint of $3.40 a bushel.


Brazil’s projected record crop of 108 million metric tons benefitted from favorable weather and ample rainfall, which have raised prospects for record yield in the country.

Globally, USDA raised soybean ending stocks by 2.42 million metric tons for the 2016-17 crop year.

U.S. soybean crush was increased by 10 million bushels to 1.94 billion bushels, based on increased domestic soymeal usage. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.025 billion bushels due to the increased production from Brazil.

Combined, those changes boosted U.S. soybean stocks to 435 million bushels.

USDA did bump up the mid-range farmgate price for soybeans by 10 cents a bushel to an average of $9.60.


Imports were lowered 10 million bushels, which then lowered total U.S. supply and ending stocks by the same volume. Ending stocks for U.S. wheat are pegged at 1.129 billion bushels.

USDA did not change the season average farm price for wheat, which stayed at $3.85 a bushel.

Global production was increased 2.83 million metric tons mainly due to larger crops in Argentina and Australia, which offset a slight decline in the European Union. Global ending stocks were increased by 1.33 million metric tons.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels) 2016-2017
Mar Average High Low Feb 2015-16
Corn 2.320 2.320 2.440 2.245 2.320 1.737
Soybeans 0.435 0.414 0.444 0.390 0.420 0.197
Wheat 1.129 1.136 1.165 1.050 1.139 0.976
Sorghum 0.038 0.039 0.041 0.035 0.038 0.037
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2016-2017
Mar Average High Low Feb 2015-16
Corn 220.68 218.60 223.10 217.00 217.60 210.87
Soybeans 82.82 81.30 82.20 80.00 80.40 76.59
Wheat 249.94 248.80 250.00 247.40 248.60 240.29
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2016-2017
Mar Avg High Low Feb 2015-16
Brazil 91.5 87.6 91.5 86.0 86.5 67.0
Argentina 37.5 36.6 37.0 36.0 36.5 29.0
Brazil 108.0 106.1 108.0 105.0 104.0 96.5
Argentina 55.5 55.1 56.0 54.0 55.5 56.8
European Union 144.7 144.9 160.0
FSU-12 130.2 130.2 118.2


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