St. Louis, Mo. (August 3, 2017) – Margins at farm gates across the U.S. are tighter than they’ve been in recent history. Increases in acreage for corn and soybeans reached a level that is consistently able to overproduce current and future demand. As a result, stocks are high and prices are low. The first in a new series of reports from the RaboResearch Food and & Agribusiness group, provides a ten-year outlook that sees demand stabilization in grain and oilseed but not without challenges.
The report, “Change is the Constant: U.S. Long-Term Grain and Oilseed Baseline Outlook,” provides an outlook through 2025 for U.S. grains & oilseeds, animal protein, and other major crop industries. The purpose of the baseline is to create a point of comparison which can be utilized for strategic planning and scenario analysis.
“Our position is that through 2025, total acres for the three major U.S. crops (corn, wheat, and soybeans) will level off, but some remix is expected – specifically as it relates to soybeans,” notes RaboResearchGlobal Senior Data Analyst Sterling Liddell. “. As protein types compete for market share, any movement between beef consumption and poultry consumption will directly impact the demand for corn produced for energy in feed and soybeans, which supply the protein component for feed.”
The report looks to offer ideas for new opportunities that can be explored and risks that must be monitored over the next five years.
“We know producers across the country and around the globe are focused on shifting from farming to management,” notes Liddell. “Understanding changes and risks in this new environment will lead to opportunities for margin maximization and future expansion both at the farm and grain merchandising levels.” The report identifies the impact of specific changes such as the need for transportation logistic support as the farmer competes more for margins generated by merchandising activities.
This U.S. Long-Term Grain & Oilseed Baseline Outlook report is the first in a six part series. The remaining Rabobank North American Baseline Outlook publications will be released over the course of Q3 2017 will include:
1. U.S. Long-Term Beef & Cattle Baseline Outlook
2. U.S. Long-Term Pork & Poultry Baseline Outlook
3. Mexico Long-Term Grain, Oilseed, & Animal Protein Baseline Outlook
4. Canada Long-Term Grain, Oilseed, & Animal Protein Baseline Outlook
5. U.S. Farm Economics Baseline Outlook